07 May 2021 - My Target Price for SG Market

Previously, I did mention in my post on why did I sold off all my SG holding and now it seemed like I had made the right choice. Yes, I know "Gurus" would lecture me on how we should hold long term for Dividend or where did I park my money after I sell and etc.

Lets take a look at Capitaland, they are now trading at below 3.60 SGD per share (at time of writing) and I sold them off for a hefty profit way above 3.60 SGD. Though my average buying price was 2.80 SGD, I would technically still be sitting on paper gain if I did not sell. However, I doubt the price would hold much longer and we would likely see a downward trend soon. 

Gurus would flame me for selling my YZJ but I had no regret because I did have capital gain after all. 2 SGD TP is a far target and I always believed YZJ will be back someday for me to pick it up cheap again. 

As for REITS, the price have started to go down ever since the announcement of tightening of Covid-19 measures. I doubt Singapore would return back to Circuit Breaker but shopping malls and office spaces are likely gonna get affected for a longer time frame than what "experts" have expected. 

Thus far, my strategy for "Covered Call" is working well and I am comfortable with the amount I'd invested. Subsequently, I am looking to rebuild my SG Portfolio by adding fresh fund moving forward. For a start, I am looking at REITS as I believed that it would only be a matter of time that retails' space would recover. However, I am so positive for office space cause there are some companies who would be able to reduce cost simply by working remotely. However, office spaces are still required and thus we should only go for quality REITS with strong backer. 

Here are the REITS and the Target Price that I am looking at. 

Frasers Cpt Tr : 2.30 SGD

Lendlease Reit : 0.750 SGD

Ascendar Reit : 2.85 SGD

Mapletree Ind Tr : 2.65 SGD

Of course, the price are just target and might change depending on how the Covid-19 situation pan out. 

05 May 2021 - Multiplying Money from Bubble

What is a bubble ? 

As quoted from Investopedia "A bubble is an economic cycle that is characterised by the rapid escalation of market value, particularly in the price of assets. This fast inflation is followed by a quick decrease in value, or a contraction, that is sometimes referred to as a "crash" or a "bubble burst."

So is bubble always bad ? 

Guru would always cite case studies like "Tulip Mania" or "Dot.Com Bubble" to scare you that bubble would crash the market and your money would be gone. However, "Rapid Escalation" could be very subjective and it really depends on individual to see it. It depends on your timescale to define what is Rapid. 

Lets take a look at the stock market indexes. 

Image from Yahoo Finance

NASDAQ always "Crash" every now and then proceed to recover to a new high. It had grew almost 10 x since the "Dot.Com Bubble". For an indexes to grow 10 x within 20 years, is it a bubble ? Or only the the portion from March 2020 till now was a bubble ? 

Now we take a look at S&P500. 

                                   Image from Yahoo Finance

If you invested after "Dot.com Bubble" or "Global Financial Crisis", your investment would have 4 x. Is that a bubble ? 

Dogecoin

I invested a small amount into Dogecoin previously and took back my capital the moment it hit 2x. From there the profit had already roll to 4x which I simply just let it rot there. So is this bubble gonna burst soon or will it Moon again with Elon Musk going on SNL


What am I trying to drive at ? 

What I am trying to say is that a bubble is define by human and usually the GURU will come out once the bubble burst and make all sort of claims. 

Bubble could actually be good for short term investors. 

A good example is Tesla and Cryptocurrencies. Personally, I believed that Tesla is overprice (For now) and thus I took capital gain for Tesla but the price continue to prove me wrong. For Cryptocurrencies, I took got back my capital and let the profit roll. So did I suffer or gain from this "Bubble" ? 

Conclusion

Don't get me wrong. I do have fundamentally strong stocks in my portfolio which I plan to keep long term for dividend or premium. My portfolio have also increased a lot due to this "Bubble" and I have taken profit. 

We must understand that unlike the past, investing is now easier due to various mobile trading platform. Trading is now like a game to some for quick bucks and majority will likely not make any money. With more "Trader/Investor" pouring money into the market, a fundamentally strong stock would also easily be "Overpriced" due to momentum. 

Ultimately, the key is to make use of the opportunity when they present itself to you. Buy the Dip of a fundamentally strong stock, Buy the Momentum of a "Bubble" stock. 

Greed is good but moderate greed will save your ASS.