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23 November 2020 - Road to Retirement ? How long is it ?

Officially, I will retired at the age of 62 years old and that is still a long way to go for me. I am approached by many wealth advisor, relation manager, financial consultant and whatever you call them. The story is always the same and will tell me that I will need this "X" amount of sum for retirement. Then they will always say that bank interest is low and that I will likely not be able to retire if I don't invest or start planning and etc. 

Yes, the fear of unable to retire is true and can apply to some people. In the past, having more kids are suppose to support you into your retirement. They are like your passive income. Imagine someone who is 70 years old today and have 5 children with each of them giving him 200 SGD per month. Although, it is only 200 SGD, it will be 1000 SGD because it is 5 kids. Furthermore, if the 70 years old is living alone in own HDB, he will be able to rent out a room for extra income. In a way this person will be able to survive post retirement maybe even without touching his saving. Nowadays with many couple only having only about 1 - 2 children, it may difficult to depend on kids for retirement. Furthermore, not all kids are the same and there are instances that the parents have to support their kids even after they retire. With Singaporean getting married later, the kids are likely gonna stay in the parent's house till late and thus the rental income from HDB will come in later. 

This is why I have started planning for retirement. I have mentioned previously that F.I.R.E movement is not easy to achieve and thus it will not be my short term goal. On top of that, I do not want to save and save till I am left with money and no memory of life. Thus, per month, I put 20 % into a joint account with my Wife, 5 % for my parents and 25 % for spending. The remaining 50 % will enter my war chest for investment. As for bonus, I will pump 20 % into the joint account, 5 % fo parents and 75 % into war chest. Based on this, I have calculated that if I have salary increment steadily and investment grow at 5 % per year, I will only reach the 1 million mark in Investment after 15 years. The 1 million mark in investment should give me a safe 3 - 4 K passive income per month based on 5 % return per annum. This is not something I expected as 5 % is actually quite an ambitious aim and my contribution to war chest may change depending on situation moving forward. 

Thus, I believed this current framework of working and investing will not get me anywhere. I should be looking at other alternative income. Investing is simply not enough. I will require income from another avenue. I have also been tracking my expenses closely for the past 10 months. I will be sharing the break down next year once Nov 2020 and Dec 2020 are over. It will show me how much I have spent and what were they for. From there, I will need to plan the road for subsequent year and toward retirement. 

20 November 2020 - Stablecoin ? Next big thing to affect E-Commerce ? Will it affect the E-Commerce Stock ?

Just last week, I shared that Bitcoin will eventually hit 500 K USD per BTC based on comparison between Gold and BTC market capitalisation. Within a few days, the price went up which was something that I was caught at a surprise. The action came to a slight stop and hover around 17, 500 USD to 18, 000 USD. This is likely to form the next resistance before it shoot up even higher or maybe retreat for a while. 

I am deeply concerned about this rally as there seems to be no valid reason behind it. I doubt it is due to the Paypal news or Square news as they are long over. It is also likely not triggered by Gold as the price movement is not as huge. 

A possible reason I feel will be due to the fact the rise of stable coin. They have recently come into the picture quietly for the pass few years and there are already a few version of it. USD, EUR and even SGD. As stable coin is pegged to their actual fiat currency, they will be a great source of liquidity. More and more countries are coming up with their stable coin and it will likely cause a stir in the market. I foresee that each country will eventually have their own stable coin which will pegged to their fiat. It will then be followed by the stable coin been utilised to flip Bitcoin and other Alt Coin which will cause the price to move even higher. 

It is rather difficult for trader to buy stuff using Bitcoin directly but with Stablecoin, the potential is higher as it will be pegged to their fiat. Example if I am in Singapore and some E-commerce store allow me to use SG stable coin, then I will be able to exchange my Bitcoin for the stable coin and then use it to shop online. This will be a huge booth not only to the crypto realm but also the E-commerce realm. 

I shall continue to hold my Bitcoin and some Contract. Not sure where I will be heading to next from here. Though Bitcoin is sort of like a gamble to me but I am not gonna go in big. I am still quite wary of it. Thus I don't expect huge gain and ended up like those Bitcoin Millionaire. 

I am also holding onto some E-commerce shares I am long with them. I shall stay humble and take my baby step. 

18 November 2020 - Chang Beer ? Thaibev is here to party

Thaibev is not so well known as a company but their beverages are likely something that most house hold will have seen before. If you are following English Premier League closely, you will likely have seen the word Chang before - Chang is the sponsor for Everton.

The company main business are in Alcoholic beverage with the most well known being Chang. The company expanded their arm into Vietnam by buying majority of Sabeco which produce Saigon Beer. This will mean that the 2 of the big names for Asean home brand are actually under Thaibev. Other than beer business, Thaibev actually added Fraser & Neave into their portfolio. Fraser & Neave or commonly known to most as F&N is a popular soft drinks and milk producer in the region. Other than those produced by F&N, they also have non alcoholic beverage under the brand "est play" which is commonly found in Thailand. 

Although the name Beverage is in the name Thaibev, the company has expanded into food industry with the name OISHI. The brand not only have restaurant but also frozen ready to eat food. This is a good expansion from the beverage business. 

Thaibev has came a long way since its' IPO back in year 2006. The price of the stocks are also rather neat with stable dividend payout yearly. The revenue is also a good factor for investor who is monitoring this stock. Moving long term, I believed that with South East Asia getting more and more exposure to the world, the brand in this region will eventually go world wide. If Thaibev do it right, they will be able to ride on the wave and break through the wind. 

However, investor need to be cautious that Thailand can be quite messy at time and thus company may get dragged in. On the other side, company can always choose to leave the country and put it business else where. 

I am not doing a buy or sell call here. This stock is in my monitoring list as I am looking at adding some F&B related stocks into my long term portfolio. There are many other competitor (F&N, JapanFood and more) in this sector in SGX but personally I prefer Thaibev. 

16 November 2020 - Covid's economy, are you affected ?

In just a few months time, we will be celebrating Covid-19 birthday. Singapore has it fair share of fighting this pandemic with various measures. 

Firstly, our checkpoints have started to implement temperature taking since January 2020. Covid - 19 was still not taken seriously at that point of time. I remembered I flew to Indonesia in March 2020 and changed my flight back to Singapore in order to avoid the deadline that SHN will be started for the Asean countries. Secondly, Singapore started to serve SHN to incoming travellers including Singaporean. This was the real slap to the face where we started to fear Covid - 19. People started to serve SHN at home and before we knew it, most hotels are selected as designated facilities. Stuck in this small island, nowhere to fly and nowhere to staycation. Before we know it, there was an outbreak in dormitories and then Singapore enter Circuit Breaker. Only essential services were allowed to continue and Singaporean should not be visiting each other. Things got worst and we could not even eat at coffee shop. Things soon become good and we were allowed to gather in group of 5 and able to eat with friends. Then in July, Singaporean voted for their government for the next term and things were quite surprising with opposition gaining 2 GRC. Thereafter things were more quiet and nothing much happened. In August, we started to reopen the border and Malaysian under special scheme were able to enter for work. This was great news as it was a baby step that we took to open the economy. 

Fast forward to this month, we opened up travel bubble with HongKong and the air tickets were sold out within minutes even though it was more expensive. It was a sign that people want to get out. They need to breathe.

We are currently still in the pandemic and we know that the stock market always portray the future. In March 2020, the market crash and it was the worst period for Covid too. We entered Circuit breaker and then market continue to be down. As of today, market has recovered slightly and we started to see economy to open too. This is a good sign. 

I have previously shared some stocks that I feel will win the market due to Covid and continue to survive thereafter. Moving on, I am target some other shares that will be welcoming the world after Covid-19.

My portfolio is now in the green too as I have entered some position during the pandemic. How about you ?

14 November 2020 - BITCOIN TO THE MOON

At the time of writing, the market capitalisation of Bitcoin is $ 299, 854, 627, 298 USD with per Bitcoin to be about $ 16, 174 USD per BTC. This is not something that we will say wow or boo. However, if we compare this market cap to the market cap of gold, it will meant that BTC still have much potential upside. Similar to gold, BTC is limited in supply too. The current total market cap for gold is $ 9 Trillion USD. The difference between the market cap of Gold and BTC are almost 40 times !! 

BTC is currently moving faster and thus if it is able to reach the market cap of gold, it will be super good news for investor. With the limited supply of BTC, it will mean that if BTC hit the market cap similar to gold, each BTC will be worth $ 500 K USD. This is super unreal and crazy. 

Nonetheless, I am holding my BTC as a gamble as I don't really know anything about it. I am still rather new and more experience with stock market. Thus my inputs for cryptocurrency should be taken with a pinch of salt. 

If some day BTC really hit $ 500 K USD, it will mean that my current investment will be worth $ 40, 000 USD with only $ 1 K USD invested. This is scary. 

12 November 2020 - Portfolio Update


The breakdown of my portfolio is as such as on 12 November 2020. 

Singapore Portfolio ($ 38,189.52) - Dividend (XD) So Far This Year ($ 1865.16)

DBS: 708 
YZJ: 10000
Capitaland: 4052

I have tidied my SG portfolio slightly by offloading my OCBC as I have always plan to. I have diverted the fund around and entered more of YZJ and Capitaland. This month, DBS will also XD and I will be receiving some dividend. This year Dividend was not so impressive but it is ok. Invest for the long term. 

USA Portfolio ($ 10, 396 : Stocks + $ 15, 256 : Cash in USD) (capital: $25, 000)

APPL: 20
EA: 15
MRK: 20
PYPL: 10

Major changes to my USD portfolio. Took some profit here and there and entered some companies but ended getting drown in Paypal after the vaccine news was announced. Shall hold this portfolio and see what else to enter. It is a new era for US now. 

Crpytocurrency ($ 1, 725 ) (Capital: $ 1, 350) 

BTC: 0.08

BTC was crazy and went up pre election. It has sort of met some resistance and nobody know what will happened. It has already reached a peak and seems to be hovering. Likely the next major news will cause a turbulence to the crypto market. 

Insurance 

Endownment: $ 26, 123

Thoughts

I am still in the midst of rebalancing my portfolio and will try to come up with my long term portfolio. Thus far, I am nibbling small amount in SG market slowly to build a dividend income portfolio. For US market, I am looking at company with potential growth to add and hold them for a few years. Crypto as usual is a pure gamble as I have no knowledge on it. 

11 November 2020 - E-commerce, the platform that cause meaningless day

11.11 sales are popping out every where. 11.11 is actually a day meant for the single to celebrate that they are single. However, over the years, with the rise of E-commerce, the online platform have use the chances and make a profit out for it. Tons and Tons of sales that will cause your credit card to explode during this day. 

Notably in China are platform like Taobao or JD.com, over here in Singapore we have our Shopee and Lazada. This is a not joke. In just year 2018, Alibaba made 31 USD Billion in sales on the very day and it could easily crash their earning for the quarter. The day has became Alibaba's signature day due to this. 

In Singapore, we can see that Shopee is spending a lot of effort in advertisement where we will see Phua Chu Kang and also Wei Jiang. The brain washing song with the dance move all over YouTube ad and even MRT. Nobody know if Shopee will reach a level like Alibaba in South East Asian but the impact is definitely here. 

I am currently looking at the few E-commerce stocks to add to my portfolio. The 3 stocks on my watch list are Alibaba, JD.Com and SE. At the time of writing, all 3 stocks took a hit due to the fall of NASDAQ but I am investing for a longer time frame. If the earning eventually will cause the price to increase, then it is actually not so bad. 

Alibaba is definitely the most well known and a larger cap too. However, the recent failure to IPO ant financial has caused a red flag to me and I am currently monitoring before making a decision. As for JD.com, it was somewhat affected by Alibaba due to the failure of the IPO and resulted in news mentioning that all these big players were in danger. On the other hand, SE is rather safe as it is based in Singapore. However, SE is currently still burning money and might be easily overtaken by the big boys. 

I have yet to make a decision but will continue to read up on the 3 companies.